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The 2017 Seventeenth Annual UMM Undergraduate Research Symposium (URS) celebrates student scholarly achievement and creative activities. Students from all disciplines participate in the URS. Types of presentations include posters, oral presentations, and short or abbreviated theatrical, dance, or musical performances. 

Presentations are accompanied by discussions and multimedia.

 


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Saturday, April 22 • 10:00am - 12:00pm
An Analysis of Streaks in Probability Using Bernoulli Trials and Conditioning

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Understanding probability is one of the most crucial aspects of understanding how the world functions. It is arguably one of the most scientifically viable tools we have to date to explain causal mechanisms and interaction. With applications ranging from the most serious such as military strategy, game theory and politics, to business and pleasure such as the world of finance, economics and gambling, probability is indeed everywhere. The focus of this research will be to continue prior analysis on an interesting sub-field of probability, by providing some basic insight as to what occurs when there are ‘streaks’. Our goal is to explain using statistics and modeling what happens when streaks in Bernoulli trials (simple success or failure trials) occur, how rare they are and how to quantify them. Applications and data involved in our study will be taken from elementary Bernoulli events like coin flips, and then from slightly more complex settings like major league sports, (with a heavy focus on basketball). The goal of our research will be to create a framework in which we can analyze the likelihood of streaks in these applications and explain our findings on the conditioning aspect of probability and stochasticity in Bernoulli trials, so when streaks occur in real life settings we can better understand and predict what happens next.

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Saturday April 22, 2017 10:00am - 12:00pm
Student Center, Oyate Hall 600 E 4th St., Morris MN 56267

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